Saturday, May 15, 2010

No time yet for serenity, even for bachelors of New-York or London #26

Here is a mathematic model for ending up celibacy when living in megalopolis:
Authors of a mathematic model - Mr Gilbert & Mr Mosteller - demonstrated that the optimal strategy to pick up the right person without being deceived by the remaining competitors (you live in a town driven by efficiency & you cannot stand mediocrity) is to reject the first 37% of all the candidates, and then select the first candidate who is better than any previous candidate.

"Gilbert and Mosteller prove that, if you follow this strategy, you will choose the best of all possible candidates on average about 37% of the time. You may think that 37% chance is not very good, but there are no other strategies that you can consistently follow that will produce a higher average probability of choosing the best of all candidates. So this is the optimal strategy for maximizing the quality of your chosen mate." reports Psychology Today.

"If you live in Ames, IA, you can expect to meet, say, 10 men – 10 potential husbands – in your life. In that case, your optimal strategy requires you to reject the first four men (no matter who and how good they are) and then marry the first man who is better than any of the ones that you have dated before."

"If you live in New York (or London), you can expect to meet, say, 1,000 men. Now your mathematically proven optimal strategy requires you to reject the first 369 men (as n approaches infinity, the precise number to reject becomes n/e) and marry the first man who is better than any of the hundreds of men who came before. (...) That’s why dating in New York is much more difficult, exhausting, and time-consuming than dating in Ames". Details are here. Another option is to drink aperitif with unknown people in a late afternoon of a late spring and to see what happens...

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